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The age of prediction: algorithms, AI, and the shifting shadows of risk
Tulchinsky I., Mason C., MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2023. 232 pp. Type: Book (026204773X)
Date Reviewed: Dec 15 2023

Minority Report, a film directed by Steven Spielberg, was released in 2002. The story is set in a futuristic Washington, D.C., in the year 2054, where a specialized police department known as the PreCrime Division uses three psychics, called “precogs,” to predict and prevent crimes before they occur. The precogs have the ability to see into the future and identify individuals who will commit murder. These predictions are then used to arrest and imprison potential murderers before they can carry out their crimes. The PreCrime system is considered highly effective, and crime rates have plummeted.

Chief John Anderton (played by Tom Cruise) is the head of the PreCrime Division. Things take a drastic turn when it is predicted that Anderton himself will commit a murder in the near future. Faced with the shocking revelation that he is allegedly going to kill a man he doesn’t even know, Anderton goes on the run to uncover the truth behind the precogs and the PreCrime system. As Anderton delves deeper into the mystery, he discovers a conspiracy that challenges the integrity of the PreCrime system and raises questions about the reliability of precog visions. The film explores themes of free will, determinism, and the ethical implications of using predictive technology to prevent crime.

Crime prediction is just one topic covered in this book on prediction and risk. Prediction foretells what is to come. Risk, on the other hand, calculates the cost when the prediction is wrong. With the help of artificial intelligence (AI), prediction is growing more ubiquitous and powerful. Therefore, it will affect our lives in significant and dangerous ways when wrong. How can we as human beings cope with this kind of uncertainty and uncontrollability? This book gives readers a lot to think about.

Prediction is nothing new. Fortunetellers have existed throughout human history. In Predictive analytics [1], Eric Siegel explains how predictive analytics works and how it affects everyone, every day. People are now eager to use AI to predict the stock market [2]. To conclude, whether you are an optimist or a pessimist, a new world awaits us in the future. As AI and prediction technologies grow more powerful, our lives may be more secure. At the same time, privacy and personal matters will also be more exposed. This enjoyable book is a good first read.

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Reviewer:  R. S. Chang Review #: CR147677
1) Siegel, E. Predictive analytics: the power to predict who will click, buy, lie, or die. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, 2013.
2) Rouf, N.; Malik, M. B.; Arif, T.; Sharma, S.; Singh, S.; Aich, S.; Kim, H.-C. Stock market prediction using machine learning techniques: a decade survey on methodologies, recent developments, and future directions. Electronics 10, 21 (2021), https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics10212717.
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